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Abstract The large-scale morphology of Milky Way (MW)–mass dark matter halos is shaped by two key processes: filamentary accretion from the cosmic web and interactions with massive satellites. Disentangling their contributions is essential for understanding galaxy evolution and constructing accurate mass models of the MW. We analyze the time-dependent structure of MW-mass halos from zoomed cosmological-hydrodynamical simulations by decomposing their mass distribution into spherical harmonic expansions. We find that the dipole and quadrupole moments dominate the gravitational power spectrum, encoding key information about the halo’s shape and its interaction with the cosmic environment. While the dipole reflects transient perturbations from infalling satellites and damps on dynamical timescales, the quadrupole—linked to the halo’s triaxiality—is a persistent feature. We show that the quadrupole’s orientation aligns with the largest filaments, imprinting a long-lived memory on the halo’s morphology even in its inner regions (∼30 kpc). At the virial radius, the quadrupole distortion can reach 1–2 times the spherical density, highlighting the importance of environment in shaping MW-mass halos. Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis, we successfully disentangle the effects of satellite mergers and filamentary accretion on quadrupole. We find that, compared to isolated MW–LMC simulations that typically use a spherical halo, the LMC-mass satellite induces a quadrupolar response that is an order of magnitude larger in our cosmological halo. This highlights the need for models that incorporate the MW’s asymmetry and time evolution, with direct consequences for observable structures such as disk warps, the LMC-induced wake, and stellar tracers—particularly in the era of precision astrometry. 

We construct time-evolving gravitational potential models for a Milky Way–mass galaxy from the FIRE-2 suite of cosmological-baryonic simulations using basis function expansions. These models capture the angular variation with spherical harmonics for the halo and azimuthal harmonics for the disk, and the radial or meridional plane variation with splines. We fit low-order expansions (four angular/harmonic terms) to the galaxy’s potential for each snapshot, spaced roughly 25 Myr apart, over the last 4 Gyr of its evolution, then extract the forces at discrete times and interpolate them between adjacent snapshots for forward orbit integration. Our method reconstructs the forces felt by simulation particles with high fidelity, with 95% of both stars and dark matter, outside of self-gravitating subhalos, exhibiting errors ≤4% in both the disk and the halo. Imposing symmetry on the model systematically increases these errors, particularly for disk particles, which show greater sensitivity to imposed symmetries. The majority of orbits recovered using the models exhibit positional errors ≤10% for 2–3 orbital periods, with higher errors for orbits that spend more time near the galactic center. Approximate integrals of motion are retrieved with high accuracy even with a larger potential sampling interval of 200 Myr. After 4 Gyr of integration, 43% and 70% of orbits have total energy and angular momentum errors within 10%, respectively. Consequently, there is higher reliability in orbital shape parameters such as pericenters and apocenters, with errors ∼10% even after multiple orbital periods. These techniques have diverse applications, including studying satellite disruption in cosmological contexts. 

Abstract The third data release (DR3) of Gaia has provided a fivefold increase in the number of radial velocity measurements of stars, as well as a stark improvement in parallax and proper motion measurements. To help with studies that seek to test models and interpret Gaia DR3, we present nine Gaia synthetic surveys, based on three solar positions in three Milky Way-mass galaxies of theLattesuite of theFire-2 cosmological simulations. These synthetic surveys match the selection function, radial velocity measurements, and photometry of Gaia DR3, adapting the code baseAnanke, previously used to match the Gaia DR2 release by Sanderson et al. The synthetic surveys are publicly available and can be found athttp://ananke.hub.yt/. Similarly to the previous release ofAnanke, these surveys are based on cosmological simulations and thus are able to model nonequilibrium dynamical effects, making them a useful tool in testing and interpreting Gaia DR3. 

Abstract The Hercules ultrafaint dwarf galaxy (UFD) has long been hypothesized to be tidally disrupting, yet no conclusive evidence has been found for tidal disruption owing partly to difficulties in identifying Hercules member stars. In this work, we present a homogeneous reanalysis of new and existing observations of Hercules, including the detection of a new potential member star located ∼1° (∼1.7 kpc) west of the center of the system. In addition to measuring the line-of-sight velocity gradient, we compare predictions from dynamical models of stream formation to these observations. We report an updated velocity dispersion measurement based on 28 stars, ${1.9}_{-0.6}^{+0.6}$km s⁻¹, which is significantly lower than previous measurements. We find that the line-of-sight velocity gradient is ${1.8}_{-1.8}^{+1.8}$km s⁻¹kpc along the major axis of Hercules, consistent with zero within 1σ. Our dynamical models of stream formation, on the other hand, can reproduce the morphology of the Hercules UFD, specifically the misalignment between the elongation and the orbital motion direction. Additionally, these dynamical models indicate that any radial velocity gradient from tidal disruption would be too small, ${0.00}_{-0.91}^{+0.97}$km s⁻¹kpc, to be detectable with current sample sizes. Combined with our analysis of the tidal radius evolution of the system as a function of its orbital phase, we argue that it is likely that Hercules is indeed currently undergoing tidal disruption in its extended stellar halo with a line-of-sight velocity gradient too small to be detected with current observational data sets. 

Abstract We present the first detailed comparison of populations of dwarf galaxy stellar streams in cosmological simulations and the Milky Way. In particular, we compare streams identified around 13 Milky Way analogs in the FIRE-2 simulations to streams observed by the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey ( S 5 ). For an accurate comparison, we produce mock Dark Energy Survey (DES) observations of the FIRE streams and estimate the detectability of their tidal tails and progenitors. The number and stellar mass distributions of detectable stellar streams is consistent between observations and simulations. However, there are discrepancies in the distributions of pericenters and apocenters, with the detectable FIRE streams, on average, forming at larger pericenters (out to >110 kpc) and surviving only at larger apocenters (≳40 kpc) than those observed in the Milky Way. We find that the population of high-stellar-mass dwarf galaxy streams in the Milky Way is incomplete. Interestingly, a large fraction of the FIRE streams would only be detected as intact satellites in DES-like observations, since their tidal tails have too low surface brightness to be detectable. We thus predict a population of yet-undetected tidal tails around Milky Way satellites, as well as a population of fully undetected low-surface-brightness stellar streams, and estimate their detectability with the Rubin Observatory. Finally, we discuss the causes and implications of the discrepancies between the stream populations in FIRE and the Milky Way, and explore future avenues for tests of satellite disruption in cosmological simulations. 

Abstract Stellar streams are excellent probes of the underlying gravitational potential in which they evolve. In this work, we fit dynamical models to five streams in the Southern Galactic hemisphere, combining observations from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey ( S 5 ), Gaia EDR3, and the Dark Energy Survey, to measure the mass of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). With an ensemble of streams, we find a mass of the LMC ranging from ∼14–19 × 10 10 M ⊙ , probed over a range of closest approach times and distances. With the most constraining stream (Orphan–Chenab), we measure an LMC mass of 18.8 − 4.0 + 3.5 × 10 10 M ⊙ , probed at a closest approach time of 310 Myr and a closest approach distance of 25.4 kpc. This mass is compatible with previous measurements, showing that a consistent picture is emerging of the LMC’s influence on structures in the Milky Way. Using this sample of streams, we find that the LMC’s effect depends on the relative orientation of the stream and LMC at their point of closest approach. To better understand this, we present a simple model based on the impulse approximation and we show that the LMC’s effect depends both on the magnitude of the velocity kick imparted to the stream and the direction of this kick. 

Abstract We report the kinematic, orbital, and chemical properties of 12 stellar streams with no evident progenitors using line-of-sight velocities and metallicities from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey ( S 5 ), proper motions from Gaia EDR3, and distances derived from distance tracers or the literature. This data set provides the largest homogeneously analyzed set of streams with full 6D kinematics and metallicities. All streams have heliocentric distances between ∼10 and 50 kpc. The velocity and metallicity dispersions show that half of the stream progenitors were disrupted dwarf galaxies (DGs), while the other half originated from disrupted globular clusters (GCs), hereafter referred to as DG and GC streams. Based on the mean metallicities of the streams and the mass–metallicity relation, the luminosities of the progenitors of the DG streams range between those of Carina and Ursa Major I (−9.5 ≲ M V ≲ −5.5). Four of the six GC streams have mean metallicities of [Fe/H] < −2, more metal poor than typical Milky Way (MW) GCs at similar distances. Interestingly, the 300S and Jet GC streams are the only streams on retrograde orbits in our dozen-stream sample. Finally, we compare the orbital properties of the streams with known DGs and GCs in the MW, finding several possible associations. Some streams appear to have been accreted with the recently discovered Gaia–Enceladus–Sausage system, and others suggest that GCs were formed in and accreted together with the progenitors of DG streams whose stellar masses are similar to those of Draco to Carina (∼10 5 –10 6 M ⊙ ).